Tuesday, September 29, 2009

How India can sneak through to semis

India having lost against Pakistan desperately needed to win against defending champions Australia,however,that was not to be as the rain gods intervened during the first innings.India now has only 1 point from 2 matches,while Australia has 3 points from their 2 matches.Meanwhile,the washout has secured Pakistan a place in the final 4.Now,Pakistan must beat Australia,while India must beat West Indies to have a chance.India conceded 54 runs more than they made in their loss against Pakistan.This is why,India had a NRR of -1.08.Australia on the other hand,won their match by 50 runs giving them a NRR of + 1.So,for India to go through,they need to recover 104 runs,which will give them a better NRR than Australia.
So,supposing India bat first and Australia bat second,if Australia lose by 50 runs then India must win by 55 runs to qualify.Or if Australia lose by 20 runs,then India need to win by 85 runs.If Australia suffer a 104-run loss,then a 1-run win for India will do.
Similar logic is their when Australia bat first and India chase.India will need a lot of luck,because if both West Indies and Australia make over 250,then for India to qualify both Pakistan and India will have to make the target in 40 overs or less.
Luckily,India has a day-night match,so they will come to know the exact scenario halfway through their match.

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